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What's the expected national demand? 20% of population (55m) will get a heavy dose and 20% of those will require admitting? Of those maybe 20% will require critical care approx 500k cases. What's LoS in critical care for coronavirus? 14 days? That's 7m bed days.

We have 4000 critical care beds, near enough. 500 are usually free and if we stop the electives we might get another 500? Call it 1000? Times 182= 182k bed days potentially available over 6 months.

So unless you blunt the spike over 20 years or find a lot more capacity then there will be a lot of deaths.

That cannot be right. I must have messed my figures up somewhere. An assumption must be wrong or my guestimates must be way out of whack.